diff --git a/doc/manual/source/the-model-file.rst b/doc/manual/source/the-model-file.rst index 03819f8f67bb278b3ebc3f01723484905e2d1f23..0ba1cdc33baa46bf1701b02615ef29c05fc800ef 100644 --- a/doc/manual/source/the-model-file.rst +++ b/doc/manual/source/the-model-file.rst @@ -5401,6 +5401,16 @@ block decomposition of the model (see :opt:`block`). so that the sequence of proposals will be different across different runs. + Finally, Dynare does not always properly distinguish between maximum + likelihood and Bayesian estimation in its field names. While there is + an important conceptual distinction between frequentist confidence intervals + and Bayesian highest posterior density intervals (HPDI) as well as between + posterior density and likelilhood, Dynare sometimes uses the Bayesian + terms as a stand-in in its display of maximum likelihood results. An + example is the storage of the output of the ``forecast``-option of + ``estimation`` with ML, which will use ``HPDinf/HPDsup`` to denote + the confidence interval. + *Algorithms* The Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) diagnostics are generated by @@ -9617,7 +9627,7 @@ the :comm:`bvar_forecast` command. Variable set by the ``forecast`` command, or by the ``estimation`` command if used with the ``forecast`` option - and if no Metropolis-Hastings has been computed (in that case, + and ML or if no Metropolis-Hastings has been computed (in that case, the forecast is computed for the posterior mode). Fields are of the form:: @@ -9629,38 +9639,34 @@ the :comm:`bvar_forecast` command. Lower bound of a 90% HPD interval [#f8]_ of forecast due to parameter uncertainty, but ignoring the effect - of measurement error on observed variables. + of measurement error on observed variables. In case of ML, + it stores the lower bound of the confidence interval. ``HPDsup`` Upper bound of a 90% HPD forecast interval due to parameter uncertainty, but ignoring the effect of - measurement error on observed variables. + measurement error on observed variables. In case of ML, + it stores the upper bound of the confidence interval. ``HPDinf_ME`` Lower bound of a 90% HPD interval [#f9]_ of forecast for observed variables due to parameter uncertainty - and measurement error. + and measurement error. In case of ML, + it stores the lower bound of the confidence interval. ``HPDsup_ME`` Upper bound of a 90% HPD interval of forecast for observed variables due to parameter uncertainty and - measurement error. + measurement error. In case of ML, + it stores the upper bound of the confidence interval. ``Mean`` Mean of the posterior distribution of forecasts. - ``Median`` - - Median of the posterior distribution of forecasts. - - ``Std`` - - Standard deviation of the posterior distribution of forecasts. - .. matvar:: oo_.PointForecast Set by the ``estimation`` command, if it is used with the