doc/manual/source/bibliography.rst

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ Bibliography
 
 * Abramowitz, Milton and Irene A. Stegun (1964): “Handbook of Mathematical Functions”, Courier Dover Publications.
 * Adjemian, Stéphane, Matthieu Darracq Parriès and Stéphane Moyen (2008): “Towards a monetary policy evaluation framework”, *European Central Bank Working Paper*, 942.
+* Adjemian, Stéphane and Michel Juillard (2025): “Stochastic Extended Path”, *Dynare Working Papers*, 84, CEPREMAP.
 * Aguiar, Mark and Gopinath, Gita (2004): “Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend,” *NBER* Working Paper, 10734.
 * Amisano, Gianni and Tristani, Oreste (2010): “Euro area inflation persistence in an estimated nonlinear DSGE model”, *Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control*, 34(10), 1837–1858.
 * Andreasen, Martin M., Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, and Juan Rubio-Ramírez (2018): “The Pruned State-Space System for Non-Linear DSGE Models: Theory and Empirical Applications,” *Review of Economic Studies*, 85(1), 1-49.

doc/manual/source/installation-and-configuration.rst

@@ -112,6 +112,7 @@ On macOS
    Several versions of Dynare can coexist (by default in ``/Applications/Dynare``),
    as long as you correctly adjust your path settings (see :ref:`words-warning`).
 
+
 With MATLAB
 ^^^^^^^^^^^
 
@@ -125,6 +126,10 @@ The default installation directory is ``/Applications/Dynare/x.y-arch``.
 It is recommended to install the Xcode Command Line Tools (this is an Apple product)
 and GCC via Homebrew_ (see :ref:`prerequisites-macos`).
 
+To deinstall Dynare, simply delete the folder where you installed the program. The package installer does 
+not put any files anywhere else in the system.
+
+
 With Octave
 ^^^^^^^^^^^
 

doc/manual/source/running-dynare.rst

@@ -188,10 +188,13 @@ by the ``dynare`` command.
         Instructs Dynare to no create a logfile of this run in
         ``FILENAME.log.`` The default is to create the logfile.
 
-    .. option:: output=second|third
+    .. option:: output=first|second|third
 
        Instructs the preprocessor to output derivatives of the dynamic model at
-       least up to the given order.
+       least up to the given order. The `first` option is useful in
+       larger models when debugging steady state computation, because it allows
+       overriding the default computation and output of dynamic second order derivatives 
+       in case of the mod-file not containing commands for further computations.
 
     .. option:: language=matlab|julia
 

doc/manual/source/the-model-file.rst

@@ -959,6 +959,15 @@ The model is declared inside a ``model`` block:
         MODEL_EXPRESSION;
+    .. warning::
+
+        In Dynare, only equality signs can delineate the left and right-hand side of an 
+        equation. If Dynare encounters an expression like ``a>=b``, this will therefore not 
+        define an inequality constraint. Rather, it is interpreted as the homogenous equation
+        `(a>=b)=0;`, i.e., the Boolean `(a>=b)` must evaluate to 0. Inequality constraints 
+        in Dynare instead need to be set up either via OccBin or as mixed complementarity problems.
+
+
     |br| Inside the model block, Dynare allows the creation of
     *model-local variables*, which constitute a simple way to share a
     common expression between several equations. The syntax consists
@@ -5478,7 +5487,8 @@ which is described below.
        If order is greater than ``0`` Dynare uses a gaussian
        quadrature to take into account the effects of future
-       uncertainty. If ``order`` :math:`=S` then the time series for
+       uncertainty; this is called *stochastic* extended path, see *Adjemian
+       and Juillard (2025)*. If ``order`` :math:`=S` then the time series for
        the endogenous variables are generated by assuming that the
        agents believe that there will no more shocks after period
        :math:`t+S`. This is an experimental feature and can be quite

matlab/getPowerDeriv.m

@@ -30,7 +30,7 @@ function dxp=getPowerDeriv(x,p,k)
 % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License
 % along with Dynare.  If not, see <https://www.gnu.org/licenses/>.
 
-if (abs(x) < 1e-12) && (p > 0) && (k > p) && (abs(p - round(p)) < 1e-12)
+if (abs(x) < 1e-12) && (p >= 0) && (k > p) && (abs(p - round(p)) < 1e-12)
     dxp = 0;
 else
     dxp = x^(p-k);
@@ -39,4 +39,23 @@ else
         p = p-1;
     end
 end
-end
+
+return % --*-- Unit tests --*--
+
+%@test:1
+x=getPowerDeriv(2,3,1);
+t(1)=all(abs(x-3*4)<1e-10);
+x=getPowerDeriv(0,2,2);
+t(2)=all(abs(x-2)<1e-10);
+x=getPowerDeriv(0,2,3); %special case evaluates to 0
+t(3)=all(abs(x-0)<1e-10);
+x=getPowerDeriv(1e-13,2,3-1e-13); %0 within tolerance
+t(4)=all(abs(x-0)<1e-10);
+x=getPowerDeriv(0,0,1);
+t(5)=all(abs(x-0)<1e-10);
+x=getPowerDeriv(0,0,0);
+t(6)=all(abs(x-1)<1e-10);
+x=getPowerDeriv(0,1/3,1); %derivative evaluating to Inf due to division by 0
+t(7)= isinf(x);
+T = all(t);
+%@eof:1
\ No newline at end of file

matlab/kalman/likelihood/missing_observations_kalman_filter.m

@@ -72,13 +72,14 @@ if isequal(H,0)
     H = zeros(pp,pp);
 end
 
+P=tril(P)+transpose(tril(P,-1)); % make sure P is symmetric
+
 % Get sample size.
 smpl = last-start+1;
 
 % Initialize some variables.
-dF   = 1;
 isqvec = false;
-if ndims(Q)>2
+if ~ismatrix(Q)
     Qvec = Q;
     Q=Q(:,:,1);
     isqvec = true;

matlab/kalman/likelihood/missing_observations_kalman_filter_d.m

@@ -64,9 +64,8 @@ function [dLIK,dlik,a,Pstar] = missing_observations_kalman_filter_d(data_index,n
 smpl = last-start+1;
 
 % Initialize some variables.
-dF   = 1;
 isqvec = false;
-if ndims(Q)>2
+if ~ismatrix(Q)
     Qvec = Q;
     Q=Q(:,:,1);
     isqvec = true;
@@ -75,7 +74,6 @@ QQ   = R*Q*transpose(R);   % Variance of R times the vector of structural innova
 t    = start;              % Initialization of the time index.
 dlik = zeros(smpl,1);      % Initialization of the vector gathering the densities.
 dLIK = Inf;                % Default value of the log likelihood.
-oldK = Inf;
 
 if isequal(H,0)
     H = zeros(pp,pp);

matlab/perfect-foresight-models/perfect_foresight_solver.m

@@ -215,7 +215,7 @@ elseif options_.simul.homotopy_marginal_linearization_fallback > 0 && completed_
             if is_numerical_exception(ME)
                 extra_success = false;
             else
-                rethrow ME
+                rethrow(ME)
             end
         end
     end
@@ -375,7 +375,7 @@ while step > options_.simul.homotopy_min_step_size
                 solver_iter = [];
                 per_block_status = [];
             else
-                rethrow ME
+                rethrow(ME)
             end
         end
     else
@@ -646,4 +646,4 @@ function r = is_numerical_exception(ME)
 r = (~isoctave && (strcmp(ME.identifier, 'MATLAB:erf:notFullReal') ...
                    || strcmp(ME.identifier, 'MATLAB:erfc:notFullReal'))) ...
     || (isoctave && (strcmp(ME.message, 'normcdf: X, MU, and SIGMA must not be complex.') ...
-                     || strcmp(ME.message, 'normpdf: X, MU, and SIGMA must not be complex.')))
+                     || strcmp(ME.message, 'normpdf: X, MU, and SIGMA must not be complex.')));

preprocessor @ 5c756434

-Subproject commit 75fccedfd17dbac12a9c20498d98d699301132b8
+Subproject commit 5c75643443ab51e49e18f7bc6546e85cd3f55536

windows/deps/versions.mk

@@ -33,11 +33,11 @@ MINGW64_ZLIB_VERSION = 1.3.1-1
 
 # Dependency of matio
 # pacman -Ss mingw-w64-x86_64-hdf5
-MINGW64_HDF5_VERSION = 1.14.5-2
+MINGW64_HDF5_VERSION = 1.14.6-3
 
 # Dependency of HDF5 (provides szip library)
 # pacman -Ss mingw-w64-x86_64-libaec
-MINGW64_LIBAEC_VERSION = 1.1.3-3
+MINGW64_LIBAEC_VERSION = 1.1.3-4
 
 # Dependency of HDF5 and libssh2
 # pacman -Ss mingw-w64-x86_64-openssl