diff --git a/matlab/kalman/likelihood/univariate_kalman_filter.m b/matlab/kalman/likelihood/univariate_kalman_filter.m index 50cdc6020ffc533028c4ef5c37ad7c5434ce5939..43c86035902533fbf46ef58d1957e9ce55250b71 100644 --- a/matlab/kalman/likelihood/univariate_kalman_filter.m +++ b/matlab/kalman/likelihood/univariate_kalman_filter.m @@ -84,7 +84,7 @@ function [LIK, lik,a,P] = univariate_kalman_filter(data_index,number_of_observat % Second Edition, Ch. 6.4 + 7.2.5 -% Copyright © 2004-2021 Dynare Team +% Copyright © 2004-2024 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % @@ -212,8 +212,18 @@ while notsteady && t<=last %loop over t a = a + Ki*prediction_error; %filtering according to (6.13) in DK (2012) P = P - PZ*Ki'; %filtering according to (6.13) in DK (2012) else - % do nothing as a_{t,i+1}=a_{t,i} and P_{t,i+1}=P_{t,i}, see - % p. 157, DK (2012) + if Fi<0 + %pathological numerical case where variance is negative + if analytic_derivation + LIK={NaN,DLIK,Hess}; + else + LIK = NaN; + end + return + else + % do nothing as a_{t,i+1}=a_{t,i} and P_{t,i+1}=P_{t,i}, see + % p. 157, DK (2012) + end end end if analytic_derivation diff --git a/matlab/kalman/likelihood/univariate_kalman_filter_d.m b/matlab/kalman/likelihood/univariate_kalman_filter_d.m index fb8a46d4445246643c2c54f5f0cfe0c49a27cc18..d18b262a0f7fa45ffd476975434bb684f6b2b038 100644 --- a/matlab/kalman/likelihood/univariate_kalman_filter_d.m +++ b/matlab/kalman/likelihood/univariate_kalman_filter_d.m @@ -87,7 +87,7 @@ function [dLIK, dlikk, a, Pstar, llik] = univariate_kalman_filter_d(data_index, % Series Analysis by State Space Methods", Oxford University Press, % Second Edition, Ch. 5, 6.4 + 7.2.5 -% Copyright © 2004-2021 Dynare Team +% Copyright © 2004-2024 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % @@ -155,8 +155,14 @@ while newRank && (t<=last) a = a+Kstar*(prediction_error/Fstar); Pstar = Pstar-Kstar*(Kstar'/Fstar); else - % do nothing as a_{t,i+1}=a_{t,i} and P_{t,i+1}=P_{t,i}, see - % p. 157, DK (2012) + if Fstar<0 || Finf<0 + %pathological numerical case where variance is negative + dLIK = NaN; + return + else + % do nothing as a_{t,i+1}=a_{t,i} and P_{t,i+1}=P_{t,i}, see + % p. 157, DK (2012) + end end end if newRank