Skip to content
Snippets Groups Projects
Commit 6dd8e920 authored by Sébastien Villemot's avatar Sébastien Villemot
Browse files

Cosmetic changes to the documentation of BVAR "à la Sims"

parent ff7792a7
Branches
Tags
No related merge requests found
\documentclass[10pt,a4paper]{article}
\documentclass[11pt,a4paper]{article}
\usepackage{amsmath}
\usepackage{amssymb}
\usepackage{url}
\usepackage{hyperref}
\hypersetup{breaklinks=true,pagecolor=white,colorlinks=true,linkcolor=blue,citecolor=blue,urlcolor=blue}
\usepackage{fullpage}
\usepackage{textcomp}
\newcommand{\df}{\text{df}}
\begin{document}
\title{BVAR models ``\`a la Sims'' in Dynare}
\author{S\'ebastien Villemot\thanks{CEPREMAP. E-mail: \texttt{sebastien.villemot@ens.fr}}}
\date{September 2007}
\title{BVAR models ``\`a la Sims'' in Dynare\thanks{Copyright \copyright~2007--2011 S\'ebastien
Villemot. Permission is granted to copy, distribute and/or modify
this document under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation
License, Version 1.3 or any later version published by the Free
Software Foundation; with no Invariant Sections, no Front-Cover
Texts, and no Back-Cover Texts. A copy of the license can be found
at: \url{http://www.gnu.org/licenses/fdl.txt}
\newline
\indent Many thanks to Christopher Sims for providing his BVAR
MATLAB\textregistered~routines, to St\'ephane Adjemian and Michel Juillard
for their helpful support, and to Marek Jaroci\'nski for reporting a bug.
}}
\author{S\'ebastien Villemot\thanks{Paris School of Economics and
CEPREMAP. E-mail:
\href{mailto:sebastien.villemot@ens.fr}{\texttt{sebastien.villemot@ens.fr}}.}}
\date{First version: September 2007 \hspace{1cm} This version: September 2011}
\maketitle
Dynare incorporates routines for BVAR models estimation, that can be used alone or in parallel with a DSGE estimation.
This document describes their implementation and usage.
\begin{abstract}
Dynare incorporates routines for Bayesian VAR models estimation, using a
flavor of the so-called ``Minnesota priors,''. These routines can be used
alone or in parallel with a DSGE estimation. This document describes their
implementation and usage.
\end{abstract}
If you are impatient to try the software and wish to skip mathematical details, jump to section \ref{dynare-commands}.
......@@ -94,7 +115,7 @@ The second component of the prior is constructed from the likelihood of $T^*$ du
$$p_2(\Phi, \Sigma) \propto |\Sigma|^{-T^*/2} \exp\left\{-\frac{1}{2}Tr(\Sigma^{-1}(Y^*-X^*\Phi)'(Y^*-X^*\Phi))\right\}$$
The dummy observations are constructed according to Sims' version of the Minnesota prior\footnote{See Doan, Litterman and Sims (1984).}.
The dummy observations are constructed according to Sims' version of the Minnesota prior.\footnote{See Doan, Litterman and Sims (1984).}
Before constructing the dummy observations, one needs to choose values for the following parameters:
\begin{itemize}
......@@ -394,7 +415,7 @@ f(\Phi,\Sigma | \df,S,\hat{\Phi},\Omega) & = & |\Sigma|^{-(\df + ny + 1)/2} \exp
We also note:
$$F(\df,S,\hat{\Phi},\Omega) = \int f(\Phi,\Sigma | \df,S,\hat{\Phi},\Omega)d\Phi d\Sigma$$
The function $F$ has an analytical form, which is given by the normalization constants of matrix-normal and inverse-Wishart densities\footnote{Function \texttt{matricint} of file \texttt{bvar\_density.m} implements the calculation of the log of $F$.}:
The function $F$ has an analytical form, which is given by the normalization constants of matrix-normal and inverse-Wishart densities:\footnote{Function \texttt{matricint} of file \texttt{bvar\_density.m} implements the calculation of the log of $F$.}
$$F(\df,S,\hat{\Phi},\Omega) = (2\pi)^{\frac{ny\cdot k}{2}} |\Omega|^{\frac{ny}{2}} \cdot 2^{\frac{ny\cdot \df}{2}} \pi^{\frac{ny(ny-1)}{4}} |S|^{-\frac{\df}{2}} \prod_{i=1}^{ny} \Gamma\left(\frac{\df + 1 - i}{2}\right) $$
......@@ -464,7 +485,7 @@ Note that option \texttt{prefilter} implies option \texttt{noconstant}.
Please also note that if option \texttt{loglinear} had been specified in a previous \texttt{estimation} statement, without option \texttt{logdata}, then the BVAR model will be estimated on the log of the provided dataset, for maintaining coherence with the DSGE estimation procedure.
\emph{Restrictions related to the initialization of lags:} in DSGE estimation routines, the likelihood (and therefore the marginal density) are evaluated starting from the observation numbered \texttt{first\_obs + presample} in the datafile\footnote{\texttt{first\_obs} points to the first observation to be used in the datafile (defaults to 1), and \texttt{presample} indicates how many observations after \texttt{first\_obs} will be used to initialize the Kalman filter (defaults to 0).}. The BVAR estimation routines use the same convention (i.e. the first observation of $Y^+$ will be \texttt{first\_obs + presample}). Since we need $p$ observations to initialize the lags, and since we may also use a training sample, the user must ensure that the following condition holds (estimation will fail otherwise):
\emph{Restrictions related to the initialization of lags:} in DSGE estimation routines, the likelihood (and therefore the marginal density) are evaluated starting from the observation numbered \texttt{first\_obs + presample} in the datafile.\footnote{\texttt{first\_obs} points to the first observation to be used in the datafile (defaults to 1), and \texttt{presample} indicates how many observations after \texttt{first\_obs} will be used to initialize the Kalman filter (defaults to 0).} The BVAR estimation routines use the same convention (i.e. the first observation of $Y^+$ will be \texttt{first\_obs + presample}). Since we need $p$ observations to initialize the lags, and since we may also use a training sample, the user must ensure that the following condition holds (estimation will fail otherwise):
$$\texttt{first\_obs} + \texttt{presample} > \texttt{bvar\_prior\_train} + \text{number\_of\_lags}$$
......@@ -592,16 +613,5 @@ Schorfheide, Frank (2004), ``\textit{Notes on Model Evaluation}'', Department of
Sims, Christopher (2003), ``\textit{Matlab Procedures to Compute Marginal Data Densities for VARs with Minnesota and Training Sample Priors}'', Department of Economics, Princeton University
\section*{Acknowledgements}
Many thanks to Christopher Sims for his BVAR Matlab routines, and to St\'ephane Adjemian and Michel Juillard for their helpful support.
\section*{License}
Permission is granted to copy, distribute and/or modify this document under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.3 or any later version published by the Free Software Foundation; with no Invariant Sections, no Front-Cover Texts, and no Back-Cover Texts.
A copy of the license can be found at:
\url{http://www.gnu.org/licenses/fdl.txt}
\end{document}
......@@ -139,6 +139,16 @@ License: GFDL-1.3+
.
A copy of the license can be found at <http://www.gnu.org/licenses/fdl.txt>
Files: doc/bvar_a_la_sims.tex
Copyright: 2007-2011, Sébastien Villemot
License: GFDL-1.3+
Permission is granted to copy, distribute and/or modify this document
under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.3 or
any later version published by the Free Software Foundation; with no
Invariant Sections, no Front-Cover Texts, and no Back-Cover Texts.
.
A copy of the license can be found at <http://www.gnu.org/licenses/fdl.txt>
Files: dynare++/*.cweb, dynare++/*.hweb, dynare++/*.cpp, dynare++/*.h,
dynare++/*.tex, dynare++/*.mod, dynare++/*.m, dynare++/*.web, dynare++/*.lex,
dynare++/*.y
......
0% Loading or .
You are about to add 0 people to the discussion. Proceed with caution.
Please register or to comment