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dynare_estimation_init.m
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dynare_estimation_init.m 13.13 KiB
function [data,rawdata,xparam1,data_info]=dynare_estimation_init(var_list_, dname, gsa_flag)
% function dynare_estimation_init(var_list_, gsa_flag)
% preforms initialization tasks before estimation or
% global sensitivity analysis
%
% INPUTS
% var_list_: selected endogenous variables vector
% dname: alternative directory name
% gsa_flag: flag for GSA operation (optional)
%
% OUTPUTS
% data: data after required transformation
% rawdata: data as in the data file
% xparam1: initial value of estimated parameters as returned by
% set_prior()
%
% SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS
% none
% Copyright (C) 2003-2011 Dynare Team
%
% This file is part of Dynare.
%
% Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify
% it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
% the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or
% (at your option) any later version.
%
% Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful,
% but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of
% MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the
% GNU General Public License for more details.
%
% You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License
% along with Dynare. If not, see <http://www.gnu.org/licenses/>.
global M_ options_ oo_ estim_params_ bayestopt_
if nargin < 3 || isempty(gsa_flag)
gsa_flag = 0;
else
%% Decide if a DSGE or DSGE-VAR has to be estimated.
if ~isempty(strmatch('dsge_prior_weight',M_.param_names))
options_.dsge_var = 1;
end
var_list_ = check_list_of_variables(options_, M_, var_list_);
options_.varlist = var_list_;
end
options_.lgyidx2varobs = zeros(size(M_.endo_names,1),1);
for i = 1:size(M_.endo_names,1)
tmp = strmatch(deblank(M_.endo_names(i,:)),options_.varobs,'exact');
if ~isempty(tmp)
if length(tmp)>1
disp(' ')
error(['Multiple declarations of ' deblank(M_.endo_names(i,:)) ' as an observed variable is not allowed!'])
end
options_.lgyidx2varobs(i,1) = tmp;
end
end
%% Set the order of approximation to one (if needed).
if options_.order > 1 && ~isfield(options_,'nonlinear_filter')
disp('This version of Dynare cannot estimate non linearized models!')
disp('Set "order" equal to 1.')
disp(' ')
options_.order = 1;
end
% Set options_.lik_init equal to 3 if diffuse filter is used or
% kalman_algo refers to a diffuse filter algorithm.
if (options_.diffuse_filter==1) || (options_.kalman_algo > 2)
options_.lik_init = 3;
end
%% If options_.lik_init == 1
%% set by default options_.qz_criterium to 1-1e-6
%% and check options_.qz_criterium < 1-eps if options_.lik_init == 1
%% Else set by default options_.qz_criterium to 1+1e-6
if options_.lik_init == 1
if isempty(options_.qz_criterium)
options_.qz_criterium = 1-1e-6;
elseif options_.qz_criterium > 1-eps
error(['estimation: option qz_criterium is too large for estimating ' ...
'a stationary model. If your model contains unit roots, use ' ...
'option diffuse_filter'])
end
elseif isempty(options_.qz_criterium)
options_.qz_criterium = 1+1e-6;
end
%% If the data are prefiltered then there must not be constants in the
%% measurement equation of the DSGE model or in the DSGE-VAR model.
if options_.prefilter == 1
options_.noconstant = 1;
end
%% Set options related to filtered variables.
if ~isequal(options_.filtered_vars,0) && isempty(options_.filter_step_ahead)
options_.filter_step_ahead = 1;
end
if ~isequal(options_.filtered_vars,0) && isequal(options_.filter_step_ahead,0)
options_.filter_step_ahead = 1;
end
if ~isequal(options_.filter_step_ahead,0)
options_.nk = max(options_.filter_step_ahead);
end
%% Set the name of the directory where (intermediary) results will be saved.
if nargin>1
M_.dname = dname;
else
M_.dname = M_.fname;
end
%% Set the number of observed variables.
n_varobs = size(options_.varobs,1);
%% Set priors over the estimated parameters.
if ~isempty(estim_params_)
[xparam1,estim_params_,bayestopt_,lb,ub,M_] = set_prior(estim_params_,M_,options_);
if any(bayestopt_.pshape > 0)
% Plot prior densities.
if options_.plot_priors
plot_priors(bayestopt_,M_,options_)
end
% Set prior bounds
bounds = prior_bounds(bayestopt_);
bounds(:,1)=max(bounds(:,1),lb);
bounds(:,2)=min(bounds(:,2),ub);
else
% No priors are declared so Dynare will estimate the model by
% maximum likelihood with inequality constraints for the parameters.
options_.mh_replic = 0;% No metropolis.
bounds(:,1) = lb;
bounds(:,2) = ub;
end % Test if initial values of the estimated parameters are all between
% the prior lower and upper bounds.
if any(xparam1 < bounds(:,1)) || any(xparam1 > bounds(:,2))
find(xparam1 < bounds(:,1))
find(xparam1 > bounds(:,2))
error('Initial parameter values are outside parameter bounds')
end
lb = bounds(:,1);
ub = bounds(:,2);
bayestopt_.lb = lb;
bayestopt_.ub = ub;
else% If estim_params_ is empty...
xparam1 = [];
bayestopt_.lb = [];
bayestopt_.ub = [];
bayestopt_.jscale = [];
bayestopt_.pshape = [];
bayestopt_.p1 = [];
bayestopt_.p2 = [];
bayestopt_.p3 = [];
bayestopt_.p4 = [];
bayestopt_.p5 = [];
bayestopt_.p6 = [];
bayestopt_.p7 = [];
estim_params_.nvx = 0;
estim_params_.nvn = 0;
estim_params_.ncx = 0;
estim_params_.ncn = 0;
estim_params_.np = 0;
end
%% Is there a linear trend in the measurement equation?
if ~isfield(options_,'trend_coeffs') % No!
bayestopt_.with_trend = 0;
else% Yes!
bayestopt_.with_trend = 1;
bayestopt_.trend_coeff = {};
trend_coeffs = options_.trend_coeffs;
nt = length(trend_coeffs);
for i=1:n_varobs
if i > length(trend_coeffs)
bayestopt_.trend_coeff{i} = '0';
else
bayestopt_.trend_coeff{i} = trend_coeffs{i};
end
end
end
%% Set the "size" of penalty.
bayestopt_.penalty = 1e8;
%% Get informations about the variables of the model.
dr = set_state_space(oo_.dr,M_);
oo_.dr = dr;
nstatic = dr.nstatic; % Number of static variables.
npred = dr.npred; % Number of predetermined variables.
nspred = dr.nspred; % Number of predetermined variables in the state equation.
%% Test if observed variables are declared.
if isempty(options_.varobs)
error('VAROBS is missing')
end
%% Setting resticted state space (observed + predetermined variables)
var_obs_index = [];
k1 = [];
for i=1:n_varobs
var_obs_index = [var_obs_index strmatch(deblank(options_.varobs(i,:)),M_.endo_names(dr.order_var,:),'exact')];
k1 = [k1 strmatch(deblank(options_.varobs(i,:)),M_.endo_names, 'exact')];
end% Define union of observed and state variables
k2 = union(var_obs_index',[dr.nstatic+1:dr.nstatic+dr.npred]', 'rows');
% Set restrict_state to postion of observed + state variables in expanded state vector.
oo_.dr.restrict_var_list = k2;
% set mf0 to positions of state variables in restricted state vector for likelihood computation.
[junk,bayestopt_.mf0] = ismember([dr.nstatic+1:dr.nstatic+dr.npred]',k2);
% Set mf1 to positions of observed variables in restricted state vector for likelihood computation.
[junk,bayestopt_.mf1] = ismember(var_obs_index,k2);
% Set mf2 to positions of observed variables in expanded state vector for filtering and smoothing.
bayestopt_.mf2 = var_obs_index;
bayestopt_.mfys = k1;
[junk,ic] = intersect(k2,nstatic+(1:npred)');
oo_.dr.restrict_columns = [ic; length(k2)+(1:nspred-npred)'];
k3 = [];
if options_.selected_variables_only
for i=1:size(var_list_,1)
k3 = [k3; strmatch(var_list_(i,:),M_.endo_names(dr.order_var,:), ...
'exact')];
end
else
k3 = (1:M_.endo_nbr)';
end
bayestopt_.smoother_var_list = union(k2,k3);
[junk,bayestopt_.smoother_saved_var_list] = intersect(k3,bayestopt_.smoother_var_list(:));
[junk,ic] = intersect(bayestopt_.smoother_var_list,nstatic+(1:npred)');
bayestopt_.smoother_restrict_columns = ic;
[junk,bayestopt_.smoother_mf] = ismember(var_obs_index, ...
bayestopt_.smoother_var_list);
%% Initialization with unit-root variables.
if ~isempty(options_.unit_root_vars)
n_ur = size(options_.unit_root_vars,1);
i_ur = zeros(n_ur,1);
for i=1:n_ur
i1 = strmatch(deblank(options_.unit_root_vars(i,:)),M_.endo_names(dr.order_var,:),'exact');
if isempty(i1)
error('Undeclared variable in unit_root_vars statement')
end
i_ur(i) = i1;
end
bayestopt_.var_list_stationary = setdiff((1:M_.endo_nbr)',i_ur);
[junk,bayestopt_.restrict_var_list_nonstationary] = ...
intersect(oo_.dr.restrict_var_list,i_ur);
bayestopt_.restrict_var_list_stationary = ...
setdiff((1:length(oo_.dr.restrict_var_list))', ...
bayestopt_.restrict_var_list_nonstationary);
if M_.maximum_lag > 1
l1 = flipud([cumsum(M_.lead_lag_incidence(1:M_.maximum_lag-1,dr.order_var),1);ones(1,M_.endo_nbr)]);
l2 = l1(:,oo_.dr.restrict_var_list);
il2 = find(l2' > 0);
l2(il2) = (1:length(il2))';
bayestopt_.restrict_var_list_stationary = ...
nonzeros(l2(:,bayestopt_.restrict_var_list_stationary));
bayestopt_.restrict_var_list_nonstationary = ...
nonzeros(l2(:,bayestopt_.restrict_var_list_nonstationary));
end
options_.lik_init = 3;
end % if ~isempty(options_.unit_root_vars)
%% Test if the data file is declared.
if isempty(options_.datafile)
if gsa_flag
data = [];
rawdata = [];
data_info = [];
return
else
error('datafile option is missing') end
end
%% If jscale isn't specified for an estimated parameter, use global option options_.jscale, set to 0.2, by default.
k = find(isnan(bayestopt_.jscale));
bayestopt_.jscale(k) = options_.mh_jscale;
%% Load and transform data.
rawdata = read_variables(options_.datafile,options_.varobs,[],options_.xls_sheet,options_.xls_range);
% Set the number of observations (nobs) and build a subsample between first_obs and nobs.
options_ = set_default_option(options_,'nobs',size(rawdata,1)-options_.first_obs+1);
gend = options_.nobs;
rawdata = rawdata(options_.first_obs:options_.first_obs+gend-1,:);
% Take the log of the variables if needed
if options_.loglinear % If the model is log-linearized...
if ~options_.logdata % and if the data are not in logs, then...
rawdata = log(rawdata);
end
end
% Test if the observations are real numbers.
if ~isreal(rawdata)
error('There are complex values in the data! Probably a wrong transformation')
end
% Test for missing observations.
options_.missing_data = any(any(isnan(rawdata)));
% Prefilter the data if needed.
if options_.prefilter == 1
if options_.missing_data
bayestopt_.mean_varobs = zeros(n_varobs,1);
for variable=1:n_varobs
rdx = find(~isnan(rawdata(:,variable)));
m = mean(rawdata(rdx,variable));
rawdata(rdx,variable) = rawdata(rdx,variable)-m;
bayestopt_.mean_varobs(variable) = m;
end
else
bayestopt_.mean_varobs = mean(rawdata,1)';
rawdata = rawdata-repmat(bayestopt_.mean_varobs',gend,1);
end
end
% Transpose the dataset array.
data = transpose(rawdata);
if nargout>3
%% Compute the steady state:
if options_.steadystate_flag% if the *_steadystate.m file is provided.
[ys,tchek] = feval([M_.fname '_steadystate'],...
[zeros(M_.exo_nbr,1);...
oo_.exo_det_steady_state]);
if size(ys,1) < M_.endo_nbr
if length(M_.aux_vars) > 0
ys = add_auxiliary_variables_to_steadystate(ys,M_.aux_vars,...
M_.fname,...
zeros(M_.exo_nbr,1),...
oo_.exo_det_steady_state,...
M_.params,...
options_.bytecode);
else
error([M_.fname '_steadystate.m doesn''t match the model']);
end
end
oo_.steady_state = ys;
else% if the steady state file is not provided.
[dd,info] = resol(oo_.steady_state,0);
oo_.steady_state = dd.ys; clear('dd');
end
if all(abs(oo_.steady_state(bayestopt_.mfys))<1e-9)
options_.noconstant = 1;
else
options_.noconstant = 0; end
[data_index,number_of_observations,no_more_missing_observations] = describe_missing_data(data,gend,n_varobs);
missing_value = ~(number_of_observations == gend*n_varobs);
% initial_estimation_checks(xparam1,gend,data,data_index,number_of_observations,no_more_missing_observations);
data_info.gend = gend;
data_info.data = data;
data_info.data_index = data_index;
data_info.number_of_observations = number_of_observations;
data_info.no_more_missing_observations = no_more_missing_observations;
data_info.missing_value = missing_value;
end